🇺🇲 Analysis – Geographic Confluence Points: Enablers in Peace, Chokers in Crisis
Leonardo Quijarro Santibáñez, RAdm (Ret.), Senior Fellow, MSI²
Global Maritime Trade and Strategic Chokepoints
Globalization, that phenomenon we often imagine as an ethereal network of data and satellites, actually rests on a surprisingly vulnerable material foundation: the oceans. Ninety percent of global trade moves by sea, and that massive flow of energy, food, and manufactured goods depends on a series of narrow passages known as chokepoints; natural or man-made confluence points whose availability is essential for normal global maritime traffic.
At these geographic nodes, an analogy can be made that they are the tendons that hold the body of the global economy together. In times of stability, they act as enablers, optimizing routes and reducing costs; however, in times of geopolitical friction or crisis, they transform into chokers, capable of paralyzing entire nations and triggering global inflationary crises.
Geopolitical Importance of Maritime Straits
A chokepoint is not just a geographic accident; it is a geopolitical center of gravity. The Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Strait of Malacca are not simply routes; they are levers of power. Recent history, in the Red Sea, has reminded us with astonishing harshness that freedom of the seas is a fragile concept.
Current Risk Factors in Chokepoints
The vulnerability of these points is currently manifested through three dimensions: military security, climate stability, and logistical resilience. When one of these aspects fails, the domino effect is immediate. We saw it with the grounding of the Ever Given in 2021, and we see it today with the threat posed by the Houthis in the Red Sea.
Recent Disruptions in the Red Sea
The situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a case study of how non-state actors can challenge world order. Houthi attacks have forced major shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea, diverting traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.
This diversion is not just about avoiding delays; it implies adding 10 days of navigation and a massive increase in fuel consumption and carbon emissions. The crisis in the Red Sea reflects an uncomfortable truth: the security of chokepoints no longer depends solely on large naval fleets, but on the ability to neutralize asymmetric threats (low-cost drones and missiles) that could close a vital artery at a fraction of the cost required to keep it open.
Strategic Maritime Geography of Latin America
Latin America has traditionally been viewed as a periphery of major Eurasian conflicts. However, its geography contains two of the most strategic confluence points in the Western world: the Panama Canal and the Strait of Magellan.
Operational Challenges of the Panama Canal
Unlike the Suez Canal, which is a sea-level canal, Panama’s is an engineering marvel that depends on freshwater to operate. Each transit requires millions of liters of water from Gatún Lake. In this context, climate change has ceased to be a prediction and has become a constant threat to the operational cycle. Prolonged droughts forced the Panama Canal Authority to reduce vessel draft and the number of daily transits during 2023 and 2024 (27 transits), recovering in 2025 to reach almost the 36 daily transits of 2022. What occurred is likely to happen again given the planet’s climate reality, meaning we could again witness:
• Logistical bottlenecks: Ships waiting weeks to cross.
• Higher raw material costs: Especially for routes between the U.S. East Coast and Asia.
• Strategic uncertainty: If the Panama Canal cannot guarantee reliability due to hydrological factors, the world must look toward other horizons.
The Strait of Magellan in the Global Maritime System
This is where the Strait of Magellan emerges not only as an alternative, but as a first-order strategic enabler. While the Panama Canal suffers from size limitations (even after its expansion) and climate constraints, the Strait of Magellan offers a deep-water route, under Chilean sovereignty, connecting the two largest oceans in the world.
The Strait of Magellan is the only natural passage that allows navigation of deep-draft vessels that cannot cross through Panama (the many vessels even larger than Post-Panamax, or large aircraft carriers). In a scenario where the Panama Canal is compromised, whether by drought or by a crisis that could disable its locks, the strait that closes the American continent to the south becomes the life insurance of Western hemispheric trade.
Additional Strategic Considerations
Additionally, its importance is enhanced by:
Security and stability: Unlike chokepoints in the Middle East or Southeast Asia, the Strait of Magellan lies under the sovereignty of a single country, Chile, far from great power tensions, yet at the same time observed by them as a zone of influence subject to strategic control.
Antarctic projection: It is the natural gateway to the white continent, with the port of Punta Arenas as a projection node, with distinctive logistical support capabilities across diverse sectors for vessels transiting its waters, as well as for supporting exploration and scientific expeditions aimed at monitoring and conserving existing and unexploited natural resources, in accordance with the Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty on Environmental Protection (Madrid Protocol), 1991, which designates the continent as a natural reserve, along with the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), 1980, which regulates fishing and protects the southern ecosystem.
Energy hub: With the rise of green hydrogen in the Magallanes region, the strait will transition from a transit zone to a clean energy export node for the world.
International Cooperation in Maritime Security
The security of these points cannot be guaranteed in isolation. The crisis in the Red Sea has demonstrated that even great powers need coalitions (such as Operation Prosperity Guardian) to keep routes open.
For the Western Hemisphere, Latin America, and Chile in particular, this implies greater responsibility. Maintaining the Strait of Magellan as a safe, efficient, and technologically advanced route is not only a national interest, but a contribution to hemispheric and global stability.
Implications for Regional and Global Stability
Chokepoints are where geography dictates the sentence of the economy. Climate change in Panama and geopolitical instability in the Red Sea have shaken the world out of its complacency. The world is smaller and more fragile than we thought.
In this context, the Strait of Magellan positions itself as a fundamental actor. It should not be viewed only as an emergency route, but as a pillar of hemispheric and global resilience. The ability to maintain these points as enablers in peace will depend on our strategic vision today. If we are not capable of protecting these arteries through strong alliances and sustainable management, the risk that they become chokers in crisis will become a reality reflected in higher grocery bills or energy prices.
Geography is destiny, but the management of that geography is, ultimately, a decision based on a strategic vision of geopolitical benefit.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).