🇺🇲 MSI² Intelligence Brief: Copa Airlines’ Unusual Traffic Into Venezuela Amid Heightened Regional Tensions
CDR Jose Adan Gutiérrez USN (Ret), Senior Fellow, MSI²
Executive Summary
On 27–28 November 2025, flight-tracking platforms recorded an unusual cluster of Copa Airlines aircraft entering Caracas simultaneously, including a Boeing 737 MAX 9, a 737 MAX 8, and a 737-800 Boeing Converted Freighter (BCF) operated by Wingo. The concentration of aircraft was notable because Copa runs typically one or two daily flights into Venezuela. This brief evaluates the event using verifiable open-source information.
Findings indicate that, while the traffic spike is operationally unusual, there is no publicly available evidence to suggest that Copa Airlines is supporting the Maduro government or violating U.S. guidance. Plausible explanations include: (1) a sudden increase in passenger demand after multiple foreign airlines suspended service due to FAA security warnings, (2) operational adjustments by Copa to absorb displaced passengers, (3) Panama’s incentive to preserve limited regional connectivity, and (4) tacit acceptance by the United States, which has not issued binding restrictions on foreign carriers. There is also the possibility that regime-linked individuals are using the remaining commercial routes, but this cannot be confirmed from open sources.
Background
In late November 2025, Venezuela experienced heightened geopolitical tension, marked by strong rhetoric between Washington and Caracas, as well as increased military activity. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a security alert advising carriers to use extreme caution in Venezuelan airspace due to deteriorating conditions (FAA, as cited in CNN, 2025). Following that alert, multiple major international airlines suspended flights. The Venezuelan government subsequently revoked operating permissions for several of those airlines.
Airline Suspensions and Venezuelan Response
According to Reuters, the Venezuelan civil aviation regulator revoked the operating authorizations of Iberia, TAP Air Portugal, Avianca, LATAM Colombia, Turkish Airlines, and Gol after they decided to suspend operations following the FAA warning (Reuters, 2025a). Reuters reporting indicates that at least eleven carriers halted flights to Caracas within the same week (Reuters, 2025b). CNN independently reported that carriers including Avianca, Iberia, TAP, LATAM, and PlusUltra temporarily suspended service in response to the FAA’s cautionary advisory (CNN, 2025).
These developments significantly reduced foreign air access to Venezuela and placed operational pressure on the few carriers that continued service.
Copa Airlines’ Operational Profile in Venezuela
Copa Airlines resumed service between Panama City (PTY) and Caracas (CCS) on May 27, 2025, following Venezuelan approval (Aviacionline, 2025). Early scheduling revealed one daily flight, with periodic increases to two daily services during peak demand periods. Public flight-tracking data from Flightradar24 confirms the continued operation of Copa flights into Caracas during the week when many other airlines suspended service.
Copa has historical sensitivity to U.S. regulatory conditions. In 2020, the U.S. Department of Transportation fined Copa USD 450,000 for transporting passengers between the United States and Venezuela after a 2019 U.S. prohibition targeting direct and indirect service (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2020). This precedent suggests that Copa is unlikely to act in a manner that openly defies U.S. authority.
The FAA’s current advisory is not a ban. This is a heightened risk warning that primarily applies to U.S. operators. FAA directives do not legally bind foreign carriers, but they are typically considered in their risk assessments. No U.S. public statement has directed Copa to cease operations.
Assessment of the Three-Aircraft Cluster
1. Operational Unusualness
Flight-tracking records show that on the day in question, three Copa aircraft arrived in Caracas within a narrow time window:
1. One Boeing 737 MAX 9.
2. One Boeing 737 MAX 8.
3. One 737-800 BCF freighter operated by Wingo.
Although Copa sometimes increases frequency during peak periods, the simultaneous arrival of three aircraft is unusual compared to the standard one to two daily flights reported by aviation sources such as Aviacionline (2025).
2. Most Plausible Explanations (Based on Verifiable Data)
A. Absorption of Displaced Passengers
With eleven airlines suspending service (Reuters, 2025b), thousands of passengers were left without travel options. Copa, Air Europa, PlusUltra, and Venezuelan carriers were among the few operators still flying (CNN, 2025). Copa may have added an extra section or deployed a larger aircraft to accommodate demand. Airlines commonly upgauge their equipment or add frequencies when competitors unexpectedly exit a market.
B. Cargo Redistribution
With passenger airlines withdrawing, belly-hold cargo capacity dropped sharply. It is plausible that the Wingo-operated 737 freighter was transporting cargo usually carried by the now-suspended airlines. This includes mail, pharmaceuticals, electronics, commercial supplies, and general freight. There is no publicly available evidence that the flight carried diplomatic or illicit cargo.
C. Preservation of Panama’s Hub Role
Tocumen International Airport is a regional hub. Maintaining limited connectivity with Venezuela allows Panama to preserve:
1. Transit flows through its hub-and-spoke model.
2. Diplomatic neutrality.
3. Economic gains from facilitating regional mobility.
Panama also has substantial Venezuelan expatriate and business communities, which increases travel demand even during periods of instability.
D. Tacit Acceptance by the United States
The United States has not publicly instructed foreign carriers to halt flights to Venezuela. Given that the FAA maintained a warning rather than an outright ban and given that U.S. citizens often rely on commercial routes for exit, it is plausible that Washington may prefer one reliable commercial corridor to remain open. This does not imply active coordination, but it suggests that Copa’s flights do not contradict any current U.S. directive.
Potential for Regime-Linked Passenger Movement
There is no open-source evidence identifying who traveled on the flights in question. However, in environments of increased geopolitical tension, it is common for individuals with financial means, political connections, or foreign residency to depart proactively. It is therefore possible that persons associated with the Venezuelan government, as well as opposition figures, expatriates, and business families, used available commercial flights to leave the country.
It cannot be confirmed through open sources whether any specific individuals linked to the Maduro regime were aboard these aircraft.
Conclusion
The unusual concentration of Copa aircraft entering Caracas occurred during a week marked by elevated geopolitical risk, widespread carrier suspensions, and increased demand for outbound travel. The most evidence-based explanation is that Copa expanded capacity to absorb displaced passengers and preserve regional connectivity while operating within the boundaries of FAA guidance. There is currently no verifiable information suggesting that Copa is acting in support of the Maduro regime or in defiance of U.S. policy.
The event illustrates how commercial aviation patterns can shift rapidly during crises and how remaining carriers often become essential lifelines for citizens, expatriates, diplomats, and businesses. Further monitoring is advisable, particularly if simultaneous wide-body or multiple freighter arrivals occur repeatedly.
References
Aviacionline. (2025, May 27). Copa Airlines resumes flights between Panama and Caracas. https://www.aviacionline.com/flights-between-panama-and-venezuela-resume-schedules-and-frequencies
CNN. (2025, November). Airlines pause flights to Venezuela after FAA security warning. https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-government-shutdown-faa-11-6-25?post-id=cmhnyfn1b00003b6qs28v8plq
Flightradar24. (2025). Live flight tracking results: MPTO–SVMI. https://www.flightradar24.com
Reuters. (2025a, November). Venezuela revokes operating authorizations of airlines that halted flights. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-revokes-flight-rights-six-airlines-amid-escalating-us-tensions-2025-11-27/
Reuters. (2025b, November). More than 11 airlines have suspended flights to Venezuela following an FAA advisory. https://www.reuters.com
U.S. Department of Transportation. (2020). DOT fines Copa Airlines for transporting passengers between the United States and Venezuela in violation of the 2019 order. https://www.transportation.gov
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).
Very well Commander Gutierrez, this will serve as a basis to identify which organisations would be willing to support an abrupt exit or respond to the need of the regime. Whether by pressure or linking or Copa pespunta like the (Go to Guy) in case of need. And as you say, using Panama as a hub and in turn being a point of great concentration of exiles has greater value.
That is being an analyst, identifying norms, alterations and trends and this is now as an (I/W) indicator/warning on the list of possibilities