🇺🇲 On the Brink of a Red Tide: Chile’s 2025 Elections and the Strategic Risk of a Communist Victory
José Adán Gutiérrez, Senior Fellow, MSI² & Claudio Niada, entrepreneur
The Chilean elections scheduled for November 16, 2025, are not an ordinary democratic contest. They represent a historic crossroads for the country’s political, economic, and strategic future. For the first time, the entire left has unified behind a candidate from the Communist Party, Jeannette Jara, who is either leading or tied in most polls with her right-wing opponent, José Antonio Kast.
In contrast, the right is split into two irreconcilable blocs, while the political center has collapsed and lent its support to the openly communist option, one that tactically and rhetorically labels itself “center-left”, to appeal to unsuspecting voters.
Under the D’Hondt system, which favors unified lists, and with control of Congress at stake, there is a real risk that the left could win a legislative majority, enabling them to amend the Constitution and consolidate a regime ideologically aligned with Venezuela or Cuba. This report outlines the risks, internal divisions, strategic missteps, and citizen and political warning signs that could be ignored at great cost to Chilean democracy and future generations.
A victory by the Communist Party in Chile would not only transform the country radically but also mark a symbolic and strategic triumph for the People’s Republic of China in the region. It would allow Beijing to secure a reliable and aligned partner in the Southern Cone, consolidating its influence over critical sectors such as lithium, energy, maritime infrastructure, and telecommunications. Moreover, it would send a powerful signal across Latin America, shifting the hemispheric geopolitical balance to the detriment of U.S. interests. A communist government in Chile would reverberate continent-wide, weakening the democratic bloc and advancing authoritarian regimes aligned with China.
1. Jeannette Jara: A Communist Candidate with an Ideological Transformation Project
Jeannette Jara, a prominent figure in the Communist Party of Chile (PCCh), won the left-wing presidential primary by a wide margin (Reuters, 2025a). Far from moderating her stance, she has reaffirmed her commitment to a Marxist-Leninist agenda based on:
• The elimination of the private pension system (AFP).
• Nationalization of lithium and an expanded role for the state in strategic sectors.
• A highly redistributive tax reform.
• Refusal to condemn regimes such as Cuba and Venezuela, which she defends as “alternative democratic models” (Associated Press, 2025; Reuters, 2025b).
Unlike moderate left-wing leaders, Jara seeks to mask her ideological agenda and her vision of “overcoming the neoliberal model” through structural changes. If she wins the presidency with a legislative majority, she will not govern as a social democrat or centrist, but as a committed communist intent on transforming Chile into a regional model of hard-left governance.
2. The Collapse of the Political Center and the Capitulation of the Christian Democrats
One of the most troubling dynamics is the support of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) for Jara’s candidacy. This alliance represents an unprecedented ideological rupture. Historically, the PDC has been a staunch defender of Christian democracy and opponent of communism. Now, it supports a candidate who, as critics point out, is neither Christian nor democratic (Ex-Ante, 2025).
Many former members have left the party, calling it “an accomplice in the authoritarian slide of the left.” Party leaders, however, justify their support for Jara as a pragmatic strategy to secure parliamentary representation under a unified list. This political survival logic has become ideologically diluted, abandoning its moderating role and surrendering to the dominant leftist bloc—prioritizing political appointments over principles.
3. A Divided Right: A Predictable Tragedy
The two major right-wing factions are entering the election divided between:
• Chile Vamos, supporting Evelyn Matthei, backed by National Renewal (RN), Evópoli, and the UDI.
• The Republican Party, led by José Antonio Kast, with support from the Christian Social Party.
• There are also smaller groups, such as libertarians and dissidents.
This division weakens their chances in both the presidential and parliamentary races. According to July 2025 polls:
• Kast leads with 30–31%.
• Jara follows with 27–29%.
• Matthei trails at just 14–17% (Capital Economics, 2025).
4. The D’Hondt System and the Battle for Congress
Chile’s electoral system is based on the proportional D’Hondt method, which benefits unified blocs. This means that even if a divided right garners more overall votes, the left could still win more seats by running on a single list.
What does this mean in practice?
• An absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies requires 78 seats.
• A 4/7 majority (89 deputies) allows for changes to organic laws and constitutional reforms without a plebiscite.
• Recent projections suggest that a united opposition could reach 87 deputies; if divided, it might secure only 68 (Varela, 2025).
In the Senate, where 23 of 50 seats are up for election, a unified right-wing list could win 27 seats—a historic majority enabling control of key committees. Divided, they are projected to win only 13 (Varela, 2025).
5. Citizens Call for Unity: Varela’s Appeal and the Open Letter
Two recent interventions in the Chilean press underscore the gravity of the situation:
a) Gerardo Varela, former minister and political analyst, wrote:
“United on a single list, we win; divided into two, we lose.”
“In a proportional system, it’s better for one list to dominate than for there to be two equal ones […] The left knows this perfectly. The right seems determined to repeat past mistakes” (Varela, 2025).
b) An Open Letter signed by over 100 civil society leaders urged Kast, Matthei, and Kaiser to set aside personal interests and form a unified parliamentary list:
“Chile needs change. If we act in unity, we have a historic opportunity to win the presidency and Congress. If we remain divided, we risk losing both” (Carta Abierta, 2025).
These voices reflect not only political urgency but also broad civic support for unity, free from partisan hegemonies.
6. The China Factor: A Silent Ally to a Potential Communist Victory
Through a long and patient approach, China has strengthened its ties with Chile in strategic sectors such as lithium, copper, and telecommunications. A Jara presidency—favoring state governance models and economic sovereignty—would greatly benefit Beijing’s geostrategic interests:
• Preferential treatment in energy and infrastructure bids.
• Expansion of Huawei and 5G networks.
• The operation of large Chinese fishing fleets and passage through the Magellan Strait facilitates access to the Antarctic continent.
• Anti-U.S. diplomatic alignment in regional forums (Xinhua News, 2025).
7. Strategic Recommendations
For the opposition:
• Immediately—before the August 18 deadline for candidate registration—form a unified parliamentary list, setting aside egos and personal ambitions.
• Agree on a joint strategy for the presidential runoff, anticipating a direct showdown with Jara.
For civil society:
• Publicly support unity.
• Mobilize informed voting against authoritarian ideological options.
For international allies:
• Closely monitor the election results and possible constitutional reforms.
• Offer economic alternatives that can compete with Chinese financing.
As reference, on July 21, the high-level meeting “Democracia Siempre” was held in Santiago, attended by prominent left-wing presidents: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, Pedro Sánchez of Spain, Yamandú Orsi of Uruguay, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, and host Gabriel Boric of Chile—highlighting the international left’s interest in Chile’s election outcome.
Conclusion
Chile’s 2025 election represents a genuine turning point. The risk of a communist presidency with legislative control is real, imminent, and significant. The right’s disunity and the center’s collapse have created the perfect scenario for structural transformation of the Chilean state. Only a strategy of electoral unity can prevent an authoritarian drift. As the civic letter rightly warned: “Chile needs it, the electorate demands it, and reality advises it.”
A communist victory in Chile would not merely signify a national government change: it would constitute a communist triumph in the Western Hemisphere. Given Chile’s international prestige as a stable, democratic, and economically solid country, its ideological transformation under communist leadership would legitimize and multiply the influence of authoritarian regimes across the region. A Chile aligned with the São Paulo Forum and sympathetic to Havana, Caracas, and Managua would become a highly effective strategic ally of the People’s Republic of China, facilitating its technological, commercial, and diplomatic penetration in South America. The direct consequence would be a deep erosion of U.S. influence as it loses a key traditional partner in the Andean and South Pacific region. In this context, an opposition electoral defeat would not merely be a political setback; it would be a high-impact geostrategic loss for the entire hemisphere.
References
Associated Press. (2025, June 29). Chilean communist scores surprise win in primary vote as battle with far-right looms. https://apnews.com/article/chile-election-farright-communist-jeannette-jara-64aa1a305842384f8e9c31cc61c0ca93
Capital Economics. (2025, July 4). Chile’s communist candidate, Mexico’s weak economy. Latin America Economics Weekly. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/latin-america-economics-weekly/chiles-communist-candidate-mexicos-weak-economy
Ex-Ante. (2025, July 26). DC decides to support Jeannette Jara in the presidential election; Undurraga resigns party leadership. Ex-Ante. https://www.ex-ante.cl/dc-decide-apoyar-a-jeannette-jara-en-las-elecciones-presidenciales-y-undurraga-renuncia-a-la-presidencia/
Reuters. (2025a, June 29). Chile picks Jeannette Jara to face off against right-wing presidential field. Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-picks-jeannette-jara-face-off-against-right-wing-presidential-field-2025-06-29/
Reuters. (2025b, July 22). Jeannette Jara is a coalition Communist who wants to be Chile’s next president. Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/jeannette-jara-is-coalition-communist-who-wants-be-chiles-next-president-2025-07-22/
The Guardian. (2025, June 30). Chile communist Jeannette Jara to lead beleaguered ruling coalition at election. The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/30/chile-jeannette-jara-communist-candidate
The Times en Español. (2025, July 20). Open letter to José Antonio Kast, Evelyn Matthei, Johannes Kaiser, and opposition leaders. https://thetimes.cl/contenido/6543/carta-de-empresarios-a-kast-matthei-y-kaiser
Varela, G. (2025, July 20). United on a single list, we win; divided into two, we lose. Fundación para el Progreso. https://fppchile.org/unidos-en-una-lista-se-gana-desunidos-en-dos-se-pierde/
Xinhua News. (2025, June 30). Summary: Former Minister Jeannette Jara wins Chile’s ruling coalition presidential primary. Xinhua Español https://spanish.news.cn/20250630/b3cacbe5d83f4dbd80692b2085cfaf9a/c.html
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²).